FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRATIC PROCESS
(FODEP)
INTERIM POST ELECTION STATEMENT ON THE JUST ENDED FIVE
(5) PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS IN MKUSHI SOUTH, KASENENGWA, SOLWEZI CENTRAL,
ZAMBEZI WEST AND VUBWI CONSTITUENCIES HELD ON 11TH SEPTEMBER, 2014
ISSUED AT LUSAKA ON 13TH SEPTEMBER 2014 BY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
MCDONALD CHIPENZI.
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| MacDonald Chipenzi |
Foundation for Democratic
Process (FODEP) monitored the just ended parliamentary by-elections in the five
(5) constituencies by placing both stationed and roving monitors in selected
polling stations. FODEP is happy to
present to you its observations and analysis of the just ended by-elections.
From the onset, FODEP would
like to congratulate the ruling PF, UPND and MMD for scooping three (3) and one
apiece respectively out of the five parliament by-elections held on 11th
September 2014 and the peaceful, disciplined environment in which the elections
were held. We hope the winners will celebrate responsibly while the losers
prepare for themselves for 2016. We want
to further commend all political parties, their supporters and all stakeholders
in the electoral process for ensuring that the just ended by-elections
proceeded on well, peacefully and orderly.
The management and
administration of the electoral process by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ)
also deserves commendation. We will be failing in our duty too if we do not
recognize and appreciate the efforts Zambia Police Force put in maintaining law
and order throughout the election process. To all, we say well done and further
encourage them to continue cherishing peaceful means of conflict resolution in
future elections.
FODEP however, bemoans the high
levels of voter apathy that characterized the by-elections. To illustrate this,
Zambezi West with 10,206 voters only 4924 voters cast their votes representing
48.2% the highest turn out in this round of by-elections. Kasenengwa with 41,
795 had 15,141 voters voting representing 36.2% turnout. Vubwi with 18,084 registered
voters had only about 6,693 voters casting their votes representing 37.0% while
Solwezi Central with 52,900 voters only had about 10,403 casting their votes
representing 19.67% turnout. Mkushi South in Luano District with 12,793 had
only about 4,738 voters casting their vote representing 37.04%. As illustrated
above, all the constituencies failed to score 50% voter turnout.
This is a trend that we need
to contain before it undermines the 2016 tripartite elections. Lack or limited
voter education, distances to the polling stations, disconnect between the
elected and electors, poor service delivery e.g. government’s failure to
purchase maize through Food Reserve Agency (FRA), fear of precedents of
violence and intimidation and un-updated voters’ register were cited as reasons
for poor voter turnout in some constituencies.
Nonetheless, the results
from the five constituencies show very interesting electoral and political trends.
The victories and losses scored were as a result of various variables ranging
from political party and candidates’ strengths and popularities respectively to
urban-rural divide and desire to be close the party in power. More importantly
though about these by-elections is the fact that they have “given birth” to
three (3) women parliamentarians, increasing the percentage of women in the
House. They have sent a strong signal that women can compete and win even
competitive electoral contests and defeat their menfolk.
FODEP further noted the
regional voting pattern which was conspicuously reflected out of these five
by-elections. For instance, UPND was either second to the ruling party or first
in areas where it is traditionally strong so is the MMD while PF has performed
well in areas where it is also traditionally strong and took advantage of the
incumbency in other areas to dilute and usurp opposition strength in their
strongholds.
FODEP’s analysis shows that
Solwezi Central and Kasenengwa constituencies both located in an urban set-up
were won by the opposition while Mkushi South, Vubwi and Zambezi West which are
rural constituencies were scooped by the ruling party. This entails that the
rural vote is favoring the party in power while the urban vote which helped the
current party assume power is steadily being eroded.
Another interesting aspect
is that the election results were in favour of the ruling party in both
constituencies where new districts have been declared such as Vubwi and Mkushi
South (Luano District). In Luano District under Mkushi South Constituency voters
could also been showing appreciation to the government for killing the Miloni
Brothers who terrorized them for years. In Zambezi West, the overstaying of the
losing candidate for the UPND could have caused despondence among voters who
opted for a change.
It is an undeniable fact
that the electoral results show that PF is making inroads in opposition
strongholds as evidenced in Vubwi, Kasenengwa, Solwezi, Mkushi and Zambezi West
constituencies partly because some of the constituencies have been associated
with the ruling parties for some time except that 2011 elections put them on
the other side of the coin. The ruling party religious used development
projects as a campaign bait such as road construction, communications towers,
agriculture marketing, etc. The indiscriminate used of government facilities,
resources and the dangling of development projects to constituencies where
elections too place by the government ministers who flooded the constituencies
with a lot of promises and pledges undermined the freeness and fairness of the
vote.
Regardless, the final
analysis and cumulatively indicate that the opposition has lost majority in
parliament which will now strengthen the “tyranny of the majority syndrome” and
the “arrogance of numbers by the ruling party in the House. Resultantly,
however, the MMD, which has becoming a political and electoral fishing pond for
both PF and UPND, has suffered the greatest loss because all the seats save for
one, contested belonged to it but only retained one. The UPND despite grabbing
a seat from MMD i.e. Solwezi Central, has lost its own seat to the ruling party
-Zambezi West. Therefore, Zambia is back to the pre-2001 elections where
parliament was one party dominated. This situation will undermine democratic
accountability in Zambia due to its weakened oversight role. The situation may
also have a negative implication on the constitution making process as
government may arrogantly opt for a constitutional amendment now that it has
increased its numbers in parliament.
Further implication of the electoral
results is that Zambia’s “electoral weather” is not static but unpredictable
and defeats political parties’ argument that their popularity in 2011 remains strong
throughout a 5-year electoral cycle in areas they won elections. As can be observed some political parties are
losing grip of their constituencies at very alarming rate while others are
gaining ground 3 years since 2011. There is need for serious reflection and
packaging of their messages or indeed relooking at the popularity and caliber
of the candidates being adopted. Zambians political system should not be blind
to the dangers of allowing weakened opposition in parliamentary as it will undermine
parliamentary democracy and accountability.
Finally, FODEP is happy with
the manner the Commission transparently managed the just ended election
process. However, though the legal framework mandates the Commission to
announce the results within 48hrs, it is worrying that, in the midst of high
levels of apathy, electoral results are taking long to be released like in
situation of high voter turn-out. It is for this reason that FODEP supports the
introduction of the electronic result transmission system with the hope that it
will resolve the issue of result delayed release of elections results and
appeals to all stakeholders to embrace the system.
In conclusion, the just
ended parliamentary elections were transparent. However, there is need to
continue working towards improving the level playing field on media coverage,
use of government resources and unaccounted for time by ministers who spend
much of their time in the campaigns rather than serving the citizens. Their
presence in numbers has exploited the process to their advantage. To this end,
FODEP calls for an urgent need for electoral reforms ahead of the 2016
tripartite elections.
