MUFUMBWE BY-ELECTION: Parties, Statistics and Geo-Politics

By Paul Shalala

Mufumbwe is one of the most famous constituencies in Zambia. Unfortunately the area's popularity is not for good reasons, its actually for bad reasons. Mufumbwe shot to prominence in April 2010 when at the height of campaigns for a parliamentary by-election, violence engulfed the whole constituency as political cadres fought in bloody battles which resulted in heavy casualties on either side. Then Police Chief Francis Kabonde was one of the people caught up in the violence. He was shown on TV running away from cadres in Mufumbwe when his base was invaded by cadres.

As voters will be trooping into various polling stations to vote for their new parliamentarian on 8 November 2012, the fear of violence will be high on their minds as its not too long ago when the previous by-election was held.

Why the by-election?
A few months ago, opposition MMD expelled its Mufumbwe MP Stephen Masumba for gross misconduct. This action came after Masumba accepted a presidential appointment in the Patriotic Front government as a
Deputy Minister He further campaigned heavily for the ruling party and delivered a ward in his constituency during by-elections held in July this year. Masumba appealed his expulsion to the courts but the MMD
won the case hence the by-election.

Statistics
Mufumbwe is a relatively rural constituency. The constituency has 15 wards with a total of 27, 027 voters. According to the latest voters register, Mufumbwe has more women voters than men. In terms of representation among political parties, the MMD and UPND both have 7 councillors each while the PF has one councillor. On 11 October 2012, three candidates from the MMD, PF and UNIP successfully filed in their nominations to contest the vacant Mufumbwe parliamentary seat.

Geo-Politics
Mufumbwe is one of the 12 constituencies in North-Western Province. This is a region that is historically a fluid province that usually votes as a block. Voters in this area change their voting pattern from one election to another. At the moment, MMD has 8 seats, UPND has 3 and Mufumbwe (which was MMD) is the 12th seat which is currently vacant.

Strength of Parties

MMD
MMD is coming into this November by-election as a party that has held the seat since the 20 September 2011 general elections. The party has declared that it will contest the seat whether its alliance partner
UPND also fields a candidate or not. It will campaign on a promise of discipline and try hard to get back the seat. MMD is not new to Mufumbwe, it held the seat for many years and voters in the area know it very well. The party will boast a lot of the developmental projects the party brought to the region when it was in power, developments such as mines.

PF
The Patriotic Front comes into the by-election with memories of its fresh victory in Shukwe ward of Mufumbwe. PF snatched Shukwe ward from MMD 3 months ago. The PF will also use its strength of incumbency to scoop Mufumbwe which will be its first ever seat in North-Western Province. Just like it won its first ever seat in Eastern Province through a by-election, PF will also try to win Mufumbwe and announce
its grand entry into the province. PF will count on its candidate Stephen Masumba, the immediate past MP to scoop the seat. Added to that, the PF also has Elliot Kamondo, the man who won the seat in 2010
and lost it last year to Masumba by 59 votes. According to some PF insiders, the two are likely to form a deadly campaign squad to ensure an easy victory for the ruling party.

Other Parties

UNIP
The former ruling party UNIP is one of those courageous political parties that field candidates in almost all by-elections. Despite having a nationwide appeal, UNIP has declined and only has 3 councillors countrywide and no MP in Parliament. It has contested Mufumbwe to try and bring back its fortunes which keep declining everytime its candidates are on the ballots.

UPND
UPND is not contesting the seat, it has decided to back its alliance partner MMD. UPND shocked many when it snatched Mufumbwe in April 2010 from MMD in a by-election that was necessitated by the death of area MMD MP Misheck Bonshe who was also Home Affairs Deputy Minister. The party held the seat from 2010 till 2011 when Elliot Kamondo was beaten by MMD's Stephen Masumba through a difference of only 59 votes. Therefore, UPND still stands a chance if it contests.NAREP is another party that has a youthful appeal but has so far failed to send any of its candidates into an elected body. It may contest to get its first ever seat in parliament since its establishment in April 2010.

Campaign issues
Infrastructure development is likely to top the campaign speeches. Like any other rural constituency, Mufumbwe lacks good roads, good schools and health facilities. Both the ruling and opposition parties
are likely to use the campaign trail to emphasise the need for good infrastructure. Peace is another issue that is likely to feature highly in the campaign. Coming from the background of violence two years ago, politicians are likely to call for peace and ensure a smooth campaign.

Who wins?
Only the people of Mufumbwe will decide. Violence or no violence, apathy or no apathy, the verdict will be passed and a new lawmaker will enter Manda Hill courtesy of the votes from Mufumbwe.

Conclusion
Mufumbwe is likely to be heavily contested due to its strategic position in the North-Western Province. We are likely to see big guns from all contesting political parties setting base in the area to heavily campaign for their respective candidates. We are also likely to hear allegations of malpractices but what most Zambians wouldn't want to see is the repeat of the 2010 violence where then Police Chief Francis Kabonde was captured on TV hiding in a room from cadres who invaded the area where he was sheltering.

HH’S UPND: Recent Defections and 2016

By Paul Shalala

In Zambia, being aligned with the ruling party or the elite is the desire of many. This status is usually attained when citizens join the ruling party, befriend those in government or offer favours to those in the corridors of power.

In every general election the country has had since it reverted back to multi-party politics in 1991, politicians have been crossing from one party to the other in search of acceptance, security, change of status and opportunities.

In the first five months following the triumph of the Patriotic Front (PF) in the September 2011 General Elections, various politicians both from the former ruling Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) and other political parties left their respective parties to join the PF. Some of those defecting included senior MMD leaders like Goodward Mulubwa who was the party’s National Treasurer and others from the party’s provincial executives who joined the now ruling party which they had fought tooth and nail and successfully beat in the past 10 years till it dislodged them in 2011.

But in the last three months, the defections seem to have taken a different direction. This time politicians are leaving the MMD and joining the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) which despite being smaller in size and having fewer numbers of members of parliament than MMD, has swallowed many influential defectors. Three time presidential elections loser Hakainde Hichilema has been at the core of these defections as he hosts press briefings to welcome these new members.

One reason that can be cited for politicians ditching the MMD is the fact that some Zambians do not usually like to associate themselves with a losing party. Just like UNIP which lost elections in 1991, MMD is suffering defections due to its loss of elections last year. Most people who have left MMD are claiming that the party is divided hence its future being bleak.

Despite the MMD and UPND being in a loose and unofficial alliance both in parliament and on the campaign trail, defectors have continued exiting the former ruling party and spilling filth on it when joining the UPND. In recent months, a number of prominent MMD big wigs have left the embattled party to join Hichilema’s UPND.

Edwin Lifwekelo, Edward Mumbi, William Banda and ‘popular’ comedian Thomas Sipalo (Diffikkoti) are some of the eminent figures who have joined the rank and file of Hichilema’s organisation whose motto is to move Zambia forward. Some of these have even been offered senior party positions.  

But why are all sorts of people now flocking to UPND? Why are former MMD members being embraced in UPND, a party they called all sorts of names in the past decade? And why is UPND accepting them and further offering party positions to some of them? The following passages will try to bring out the possible reasons why the status quo is like this.

Quantity

Like any other game, politics has its own rules. One of these rules is numbers. In politics, the more the numbers you have, the more votes you have and the more power you acquire. It is this premise which to some extent has led UPND to accept all those defecting from the MMD despite some of them being controversial figures.  UPND is convinced that by accepting everyone who knocks at its Rhodespark secretariat for membership cards, it will grow a mass movement which will help it wrestle power from the PF’s ‘Donchi Kubeba’ machine in 2016 when the next general elections are held.

Project a certain image and win elections

By holding press briefings to unveil ‘big fish’ who defect from other parties to join UPND, the opposition party is very much convinced that it’s a better strategy to win hearts and minds of voters and make them believe that UPND is the only alternative to the ruling PF. This image being projected by the UPND does not go unchallenged because some of the people unveiled by party president Hichilema at his numerous press briefings are controversial politicians who still have issues of credibility in people’s minds.

Greener pastures, opportunism and convenience

It has been said by many that most people who defect in Zambia are opportunists. Some politicians are known to have moved from one party to the other without regard for the ideologies of the political parties they are joining. For example, William Banda was in UNIP, he joined MMD where he served as Lusaka Province Chairman before resigning early this year to join UPND. Despite UNIP being socialist in nature, he left it and joined UPND and MMD which are capitalist in nature. Another example is that of Edward Mumbi who served as Secretary General of the PF, a seemingly socialist-inclined party. Mumbi later joined capitalist MMD and now he is in UPND. Other examples include Edwin Lifwekelo and others who have crossed parties in search of greener pastures, opportunism and convenience. Lifwekelo, who was an outspoken and pro-MMD ‘civil society’ activist, is now deputy spokesperson of the UPND following his defection earlier this year. All these defections seem not to be based on policy or principles but opportunism or convenience because one can clearly see that the defectors leave a party with a totally opposite ideology to the other they later join.

Quality and credibility

When people defect to another party, they are expected to bring value to that party. This is exactly what many UPND leaders expect to get from their allies who are joining them. However, the credibility of some of the defectors is questionable. Their quality too is questionable as some of them have well documented backgrounds which do not earn them respect in society. Therefore, their credibility is questionable. Some are known to be violent even when they talk about peace in society.

Towards 2016 Elections

Despite the next general elections being four years and a month away, the ground is already being set for a showdown. For the UPND, defections are one of the signs that it is preparing for the next polls. However, defections on their own are not enough to warrant an outright victory. Some people are known to have defected today and tomorrow they are back to their former party. The case of Paul Monga is one such example which I can cite, the man has been in and out of UPND for at least three times. In the 2011 general elections, many politicians from the PF defected to the MMD but the then ruling party ended up losing. Therefore, Hichilema and UPND shouldn’t bank too much on the defections. They should campaign not only in the media but also on the grassroots.

Conclusion

Defections or no defections, UPND has a high chance of giving a good run to the PF in 2016. However, Hichilema and his lieutenants should strictly scrutinize all those joining them as defectors. It is true that HH needs these numbers to win as president after losing the past three presidential elections but he needs to ensure that none of these people damage his image to the voters. Appointing some of the controversial defectors to the opposition party’s National Management Committee can have a negative impact on the way his party may perform in 2016. Hichilema’s warm reception to controversial characters like William Banda may have a negative impact on the way people look at his credentials on the rule of law and respect for divergent views due to the man’s history of violence. Just like the example seen in 2011, defections don’t usually count in general elections. Their effect is usually minimal which means the UPND should not spend more time celebrating the defections but spend more time organizing the party on the grassroots.

Zambia'a dilemma in SADC and COMESA

By Paul Shalala

Zambia’s continued membership to two regional trade blocks has the potential to maximize the country’s external trade, says a Zambian academic specialized in social sciences.

Dominic Liche, a lecturer in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Zambia, says both the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) have good trade regimes that are of benefit to Zambia.

Mr Liche said Zambia should maximise the provisions of COMESA on trade and also try to harmonise them with trade agreements she has signed with SADC.

“I personally think that it should not be a dilemma for Zambia tobelong to both SADC and COMESA. Of course there are certain areas wherethere are similarities and sometimes dublications but the objectives and mandate of SADC and COMESA are diverse. The question should not be about whether or not Zambia should have many trade agreements,” he said.

He further said Zambia should continue working with the two blocs because they are already working together to harmonise their trade regimes.

“And when it comes to trade, SADC works with COMESA and other African regional bodies to ensure free trade works across Africa. It is therefore inadequate to treat the two as though they have the same mandate for this can lead to a misunderstanding that leads us to think there is or could be a possible dilemma in belonging to both groupings,” added MrLiche.

But some civil society organisations have questioned Zambia’s continued stay in the two regional trade blocs.

This is despite government insisting that duo membership benefits the country and that the country cannot leave SADC due to its historical involvement in the liberation of Southern African countries.

According to a research conducted by a consortium of Zambian Civil Society Organisations, Zambia’s implementation of the SADC Free Trade area since January 2012 has cost the country a lot of revenue in terms of tax through complete tariff liberalization.

Further, the research findings have also revealed that the overlapping membership of Zambia to SADC and COMESA poses a challenge because it forces the country to be in an unease position as it will always be grappling with the possibility of dumping one of the two blocs.

Despite these research findings, the Zambian government is unlikely to pull out of any of the two blocs due to the fact that it hosts the COMESA secretariat and it feels it has an obligation on the welfare of the region due to its history.

Why Sata Poaches MMD MPs Only

By Paul Shalala

In the past two months, the Zambian media has been dominated by the debate on whether President Michael Sata has the moral right to appoint opposition Members of Parliament to serve in his government as Deputy Ministers.

On Monday, one MMD MP who was serving as a Deputy Minister resigned from his ministerial position after pressure from his party. The following day, President Sata appointed two more MMD MPs to serve in his government and on Wednesday, the MMD’s National Executive Committee is set to meet and decide the fate of all its MPs who are serving in the PF government, possibly expelling them.

Legally, the 1991 Zambian constitution as amended in 1996 allows the head of state to appoint MPs from within the legislature. The constitution does however not state from which party the president can appoint making it easy for Mr Sata to appoint across the board. Therefore, the president does not break any law by appointing opposition MPs.

But why is Mr Sata targeting MMD MPs only? Below are some of the points which could be behind the president’s continuous appointments from within the MMD.

NUMBERS

The ruling Patriotic Front does not have the numbers to pass laws on its own. The opposition actually has the power to bring a deadlock in the house, they have the numbers. The PF has less than the two thirds majority (106 MPs) which is needed to control parliament without any problem from backbenchers. It is this lack of the two thirds majority which somehow is pushing the PF to continuously court MMD MPs. 

Once these opposition MPs are appointed as Ministers, they shift seats to the right of the Speaker and subsequently change their pattern of voting in parliament, giving an advantage to the PF which has few seats. Therefore, its all sweet for Dr Guy Scott, leader of government business in the house, when an opposition MP shifts camp in Parliament.

Loyalty

The other reason why MMD MPs are easily appointed by President Sata is the fact that the head of state is seen as a product of the MMD, a party he led as National Secretary before ditched it and formed the Patriotic Front. This realization makes it easy for MMD MPs to become loyal to the President than UPND MPs who would not accept such an offer. Loyalty to the system makes it easy for the PF to have it easy in the house.

Dominancy

By appointing opposition MPs into his government, President Sata is ensuring PF’s dominancy over the political scene. Dominancy for the PF is necessary as every ruling party needs it to suppress the opposition. But in cases where it’s a coalition government, this dominancy is not counted as an opposition party fully agrees to join government. By having opposition MPs within his ranks, President Sata will continue to dominate politics both nationally and within the party.

Divisions in MMD

President Sata seems to be appointing only MMD MPs after realizing that the MMD seems to be the most divided opposition political party in the country. The UPND with its 29 MPs seems united against any of its MPs serving in the PF government, it has actually made it clear it would not tolerate such a move and would instantly expel any of its MPs who would ‘go to bed’ with the ruling party. But the MMD, the major opposition party in the house, is divided on this matter.

Some sections of this former ruling party agree to their MPs sharing power with the ruling PF due to the party’s own legacy which stems from the Levy Mwanawasa era. However, another section of MMD is publicly opposed to those MPs who are serving in government. It is this YES and NO situation in MMD which to some extent has convinced the president to use MMD as a leverage for his control of Manda Hill.

Conclusion

As long as the Zambian constitution allows ministers to be appointed from within parliament, this horse trading will continue. Ruling parties will continue dominating the opposition in a bid to control the house and pass critical laws. However, with the new draft constitution suggesting the appointment of ministers from outside parliament, this culture of ‘poaching’ opposition MPs is likely to end as only technocrats will be serving in ministerial portfolios.

My Ugandan Experience

By Paul Shalala

Attending a Thomson Reuters Foundation training course was one of those things I had always wished to do in the past four years I have been practicing journalism in Zambia.

In a space of 2 years, i had applied at least four times to attend the trainings but to no avail. To make matters worse, my colleagues from the same media institution were being successful in having their applications accepted and the more I lost out the more I got more determination to try again.

I sent my last application for a Reuters training in Economic and Financial Reporting in May 2012 and it turned out to be success which became an eye opener for me to international standards of business journalism. The training was to be held in Uganda, a country that describes itself as the ‘pearl of Africa.’

When the big day Sunday 24 June, 2012 came, the day I was supposed to leave Lusaka the city of my birth, my mind was bombarded with imaginations of how the training will be, how the Ugandan capital Kampala looks like and what kind of people I will interact with at the training.

With wild imaginations of Uganda, a country portrayed by the media as the former base for rebel LRA’s Joseph Kony and a former home for the late dictator Idi Amin, I was excited to see the beauty of the resort city of Entebbe from the air as we were landing at its airport which is located a few meters away from the world famous Lake Victoria. 

Driving from the airport in Entebbe to Kampala brought me fond memories of the usual traffic I had seen in the Kenyan capital though the scale of the traffic congestion was half that of Nairobi. I was fascinated with the size of Kampala and the good infrastructure it has which was completely contrally to my own imaginations. I had in mind a small and poorly organized city but to my surprise, I found Kampala to be a live city which never goes to sleep as business goes on day and night.

The following day, our five day training which attracted 14 business reporters from six African countries got under way. To be precise, the course ran from 25-29 June 2012 at the African Center for Media Excellence in Kampala, Uganda.

David White, a TRF trainer with more than four decades experience in the media, conducted the intense training which aroused a lot of interest, debates and smiles among participants. In some sessions, David brought up thought provoking situations to help the trainees think wider and understand the business concepts. David was joined by Teddy Nannozi, a Ugandan journalist who co-facilitated the course.

Of all the topics under discussion, reporting on stock markets seemed the most interesting to the African journalists as it kept them busy asking questions on the process and activities related to stocks trading in markets.

To me, the most interesting part of the training was on Wednesday when we were split into four groups making up ‘news agencies’ and we were bombarded with press statements, press briefings and news updates which we were supposed to be report simultaneously in real time.

This exercise, which lasted an hour, kept all participants under pressure from the ‘news editors’ who kept demanding for news stories every five minutes. In this way, participants were kept on their toes as they moved from one ‘news event’ to the other, asking questions, taking notes from speeches given by ‘sources’ and later writing the stories. 

On Tuesday, the group visited the World Bank offices in Kampala where it met the country manager Moustapha Ndiaye who gave a 30 minutes presentation on the economic situation in Uganda as well as an assessment of the situation in East Africa. Journalists being usual inquisitive human beings, asked Mousstapha a lot of questions which he answered without hesitation.

On Thursday, Nairobi-based Dr Dereje Alemayehu gave a presentation on capital flight. Dr Alemayehu, who is chairman of the Tax Justice Network Africa, revealed how billions of dollars are being lost in Africa due to the existence of tax havens in the world. And participants were surprised to learn that most tax havens are islands belonging to developed countries which champion transparency around the world but allow their territories to syphon such large amounts of money from developing countries.

Our stay in Kampala would not have been complete without ‘sampling’ the city. A bus full of participants toured the city and spent most of their time at the Vision Media Group where they saw how some of the leading newspapers, radio stations, magazines and TV stations in Uganda are run. To me who comes from a country (Zambia) where the law does not allow a citizen or a company to own various media institutions by one owner, I was surprised to see a vibrant multimedia company which owned a spectrum of media all housed in one place. This visit showed me how liberal, plural and free the Ugandan media is to operate.

During the five day training, participants expressed happiness at the capacity building they had received through the Thomson Reuters Foundation. To some of us, this was the first time we were getting specialized journalism training in business reporting, despite having been reporting on business for more than four years.

The end of every training programme is always exciting because participants receive certification and in Kampala, 14 African journalists were excited to be certified by Reuters, a world class media institution whose credentials are worth being attached to. This certification also meant that the participants automatically became alumni of the Thomson Reuters Foundation which keeps in touch with its former trainees and keeps track of their progress in their career.

Thereafter, David took the participants to a hotel located a stone throw away from the iconic Lake Victoria for dinner. The event was meant to be a farewell one and participants took advantage of the dinner to watch the lake and take memorable pictures. The most exciting part of the dinner was a mini ‘parliament’ which participants formed. Each participant, including trainers, represented their respective countries as a members of parliament and Julius Sakala from Zambia acted as the Speaker and he had tough time moderating proceedings of the ‘legislature’ which at some point became uncontrollable as MPs’ debates became heated.

On Saturday 30 June, 2012 as I flew out of Entebbe airport, leaving behind the hospitable Ugandan people, I reminded myself of two things which I would forever miss in the land of the Buganda. Firstly, bodabodas (motorcycle taxis) were a complete new phenomenon to me as we don’t have them in Zambia. Their numerous numbers, speed on the roads and the drivers’ skills in meandering through the usual heavy traffic made my stay in Uganda the most memorable. I happily left Kampala having boarded a bodaboda for only a hundred meters as I was too scared to go on a long distance due to over speeding by the drivers.

Secondly, matooke (cooked bananas) was another new experience to me. If you ever visit Uganda and don’t taste matooke, then you would have not tasted the best of ‘the pearl of Africa.’ For any visitor to Kampala, matooke is readily available in markets, shops and even in five star hotels. As the saying goes, ‘when you go to Rome, do what the Romans do,’ I made sure I ate matooke on a daily basis. Really, my experience in Uganda was one of fascination and capacity building.  

I will miss Kampala, I will miss my colleagues from across the continent but I will ensure I up my game in business reporting. 

That’s my Ugandan experience, the 'Pearl of Africa.'

New World Bank report rates Zambia among most improved on policy environment

By Paul Shalala in Kampala, Uganda

Zambia is among 13 Sub-Saharan countries which have been commended by the World Bank for showing a stable and improved policy environment for development.

According to the 2012 CPIA Index  which is an annual assessment of how countries are performing with their development policies to reduce poverty and spur opportunity, Zambia scored well in the last 12 months.

World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, Shanta Devarajan has launched the report today in the French capital Paris.

This latest World Bank review of policies and institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows an improved policy environment for growth and poverty reduction in 13 of the continent’s poorest countries.

The 13 countries which have showed improvements comprise: Comoros, Congo Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Togo, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

More broadly, most African countries show a stable or improved policy environment for development. This positive trend is especially important given the more severe economic climate being weathered by other countries, most notably in the developed world. 

Three people die in separate road accidents

The Zambia Police Service has confirmed the death of three people in separate road accidents which happened in Western, Eastern and Copperbelt Provinces on 27 June, 2012.

In Eastern Province, a driver of a motor vehicle Nissan Hard Body registration number ABV 3359 died on the spot leaving the two passengers with serious injuries while one passenger escaped unhurt when the vehicle he was driving overturned 20 kilometers east of Nyimba  Boma on Great North East Road around 1700 hours.

The deceased has been identified as Rabson Tembo aged 58, of bauleni Compound, Lusaka and he was driving from Lusaka to Chipata.

The accident happened when the driver of the motor vehicle hit into a pot hole hence losing control of the motor vehicle and over turned.

The body of the deceased is lying in Nyimba District Hospital Mortuary awaiting postmortem while the injured are admitted at the same Hospital.

In Western Province, a cyclist died on the spot after he was hit by a Higher Bus registration number ALD 2488 belonging to Red Bomber Travellers limited around 00: 10 hours at Kande Bridge  on Mongu- Lusaka Road.

The deceased has been identified as Nyambe Nyambe aged 35, of Kande area, Village Likoka of Chief Kandula in Mongu District.

The accident happened when the dirver of the bus, Evans Kafula aged 42 of House number 501 section 22 in Luansya’s Mpatamatu township hit the cyclist who was moving in the same direction as the bus whilst pushing a bycycle.

The body of the deceased is lying in Lewanika General Hospital mortuary while the driver is detained in Police custody Charged with Causing death by dangerous driving.

And on the Copperbelt, an unidentified man died on the spot after he was hit by a Nissan Hard Body registration number ABG 6791 along Kitwe Chingola Road in an accident which happened near Kitwe Zesco around 18 30 hours.

The accident happened when the pedestrian was crossing the road and was in the process hit by the motor vehicle which was driven by Stephen Kunda aged 44, of house number 94 Mukwa Natwange in Kitwe.

Livingstone By-Election: Campaign issues & statistics

By Paul Shalala

On 5 July 2012, registered voters in Livingstone Central Parliamentary Constituency in the Southern Province will be voting for the new member of parliament. This follows the nullification of incumbent MMD MP Lukolo Katombora's election a few months ago.
 

The nulification followed a successful petition by losing contestants who cited malpractices in the 20 September 2011 poll.
 

On 5 July, voters in Muchinga Constituency in Central Province and Chama North Constituency in newly created Muchinga Constituency will also be voting for their new MPs.

Of the three by-elections, Livingstone Central is likely to be the hotly contested due to its influence, strategic position and huge number of registered voters.

In this article, I will bring out the campaign issues, possible candidates and the statistics on the ground.


Possible Campaign issues
Like any other urban area in Zambia, Livingstone suffers from high unemployment, crime and poverty. In this tourist capital of Zambia, most young people are unemployed while a few who may have opportunities drive taxies or are involved in the hospitality industry which is heavily attached to the tourism industry. Therefore, employment creation is likely to feature heavily in the forthcoming campaigns.
 

Secondly, crime is another issue in the town. A few weeks ago, gunmen killed a European pilot, the following day they broke into a bureau de change and blew up a safe to have access to money. It is not long ago when Livingstone was terrorised by the infamous "batunsimbi" gang which went on the rampage beating, stealing and assaulting people. Therefore, security is also likely to be another campaign issue.
With poverty being everyone's cry in this country, voters in Livingstone will also be looking for an MP who will bring development to the area and ease the resident's suffering. Things like roads, construction or rehabilitation of schools and clinics are some of people's expectations in the area.

Statistics
According to the latest voters register, Livingstone Central Constituency has 67,000 registered voters and 41,000 of them voted in last year's General Elections while more than 20,000 of them abstained from the polls. The constituency has 17 wards, 13 of whom are in the urban area.
 

With the realignment of Itezhi-Tezhi Constituency to Central Province, Livingstone Central is one of the 18 remaining Constituencies in Southern Province. With these lucrative statistics, the battle of Livingstone Central is likely to be a heated one considering that the stakes are high and whichever party wins on 5 July, it will carry prestige in the tourist capital.

PF Chances Of Winning
The Patriotic Front will undoubtedly field a candidate in this by-election considering that its losing candidate Joseph Akafumba is one of the people who successful petitioned the election of the MMD MP last year. The PF will ride on its incumbency, its access to mass media and its traditional support among taxi and bus drivers to bolster its chances of winning its first ever seat in Southern Province, an area which has been an opposition stronghold for 11 years now. 

The PF is also likely to capitalise on the urban vote to win this seat, remember 13 of the 17 wards are in town, so PF strategists are likely to work on this formula as they have done in most urban areas along the line of rail. By winning Livingstone Central, the PF will announce its arrival in a province which has been a headache for President Michael Sata who has had trouble getting votes in this area. In terms of a possible candidate, the PF is likely to field its losing candidate Akafumba who is a local lawyer and PF's provincial Chairman.

UPND Chances Of Winning
The UPND currently has all the 17 seats in Southern Province except Livingstone Central. This seat has eluded the UPND for a long time. This seat was previously held by ULP's Sakwiba Sikota before it shifted hands to MMD last year. The UPND has had a bulk of councillors in the Livingstone Municipal Council but the parliamentary seat has not been easy to grab. Therefore, the UPND is likely to use its grassroot support, its regional role as the sole power broker to get Livingstone Central. 

By winning this seat, the UPND will send a strong message that it has consolidated its support in the Southern Province, an area which has produced the bulk of its 29 MPS who are currently sitting in the 150 seat Parliament. A few weeks ago, rumours emerged linking Sakwiba Sikota to a UPND bid for Livingstone Central. Indeed Sakwiba may give the PF a good run for their money as he is a former MP in the area. Last year, Sakwiba didn't contest his seat but heavily campaigned for the MMD candidate in Livingstone Central.
 

Other Parties
The former ruling party MMD has publicly announced that it will endorse a candidate its parliamentary ally UPND will adopt, therefore we don't expect any MMD candidate in Livingstone.
Parties such as NAREP, ADD and as usual UNIP are yet to state whether they will take part in the by-election.

Conclusion
This by-election is likely to be heavily contested and many hope the evils of violence that has characterised recent by-elections will not manifest itself. Campaigning on issues will also help to level the playing field in order for a credible and democratically elected candidate to represent the people of Livingstone at Manda Hill (Parliament). The people of Livingstone need security, jobs, development and a good leader who will facilitate their access to the national cake.

Zambia's Draft Constitution Maintains Christianity as State Religion

By Paul Shalala

Zambia’s latest draft constitution has guaranteed freedom of worship and also maintained the 16 year old declaration of the southern African country as a Christian nation.

According to Part five of the draft constitution which was released to the public in May 2012 for public scrutiny, all Zambians have a right to freedom of conscience, religion, thought, belief and opinion.

This means that Zambians will continue to enjoy their freedom to practice any religion of their choice without state control.

This proposed legislation means that that the country does not recognize any single Christian church but citizens can choose their own denomination.

If passed, the draft constitution also seeks to allow religious institutions to establish, maintain and operate education facilities in order to help the already struggling Ministry of Education which is at the moment failing to maintain its schools spread across the country.

At the moment, Zambia has hundreds of churches spread across the country and some years ago they had increased in number to an extent where the government threatened to stop registering new ones due to a perception that some clergy were personalizing and commercializing evangelism.

Meanwhile, the draft constitution has also maintained a clause which proclaims Zambia as a Christian nation.

In its preamble, the draft constitution states: “We the people of Zambia in exercise of our constituent power, acknowledge the supremacy of God Almighty, declare the republic a Christian nation but uphold the right of every person to enjoy that person’s freedom of conscience or religion.”

If this preamble will be adopted, Zambia will continue observing Christianity as its official religion and also allowing other religions to continue operating in the country.

Since 1964 when Zambia gained its independence from its colonial master Britain, the country was officially a secular state until 1996 when late President Frederick Chiluba amended the constitution and declared it  a Christian nation.

Despite the declaration, other religions such as Judaism, Islam and Hinduism have continued to grow with the Muslims building more mosques around the country.

The country has powerful church mother bodies which are very vocal on many religious and governance issues. These religious bodies such as the Council of churches in Zambia, the Evangelical Fellowship of Zambian and the Zambia Episcopal Conference, usually influence public policy and have a large say in many legal and social issues through the issuance of periodic pastoral letters which guide their followers on various issues.

During last year’s general elections, the declaration of Zambia as a Christian nation was a huge campaign issue which saw some politicians accusing each other of planning to scrap off the Christian nation clause from the constitution once they win.

Newly elected President Michael Sata, who is a devout Catholic, has on several occasions emphasised that he would govern the country on the Ten Commandments as contained in the Christian Bible.

He has further told the nation that being a Christian nation is not enough but should be coupled with the observance of the Ten Commandments.

With the release of the draft constitution, Zambians now have 40 days in which to read and submit comments on the draft constitution.

Thereafter, a Technical Committee appointed by President Michael Sata is expected to produce the final constitution in September this year before the document is subjected to a referendum and later enacted into law by Parliament.

Analysis Of The First Draft Constitution

By Paul Shalala

Reading through the 227 pages of the Michael Sata-appointed Technical Committee’s first draft constitution, am reminded of the struggles, pickets, war of words and insults that the people of Zambia have gone through over the past years on this seemingly unending constitution making process.

This draft constitution has come at a time when most Zambians seem to be tired with the words “a constitution which will stand the taste of time.” They want a constitution that appeals to their views and aspirations, a constitution which will empower them to take part in public affairs and demand accountability like in any other democracy.

Recently, the Technical Committee released its first draft constitution which is soon to be debated and adopted in provinces before a final constitution is prepared and presented to the President as scheduled in September.

Below is my analysis, observations and recommendations of this document which seeks to be approved or rejected by the Zambian people.

Contentious issues

In the previous Constitution Review Commissions (CRCs), Zambians had been submitting a number of items which they felt were dear to their hearts and they hoped those clauses would add value to the country’s wellbeing if added in the republican constitution. Most of these items were added in the respective CRCs’ draft constitutions but were unilaterally deleted from the final documents by those in the seats of authority.

It is however, interesting to note that almost all those contentious issues are included in the first draft constitution released by the Technical Committee in April 2012. These are the 50 plus one presidential election threshold or the majoritarian electoral system, the Vice Presidential running mate, proportional representation, the appointment of ministers from outside parliament and others.

The other contentious issue is the Christian nation clause. During last year’s campaigns, it was a big issue. In the draft, the declaration has been maintained in the preamble as follows:

“We the people of Zambia in exercise of our constituent power, acknowledge the supremacy of God Almighty, declare the republic a Christian nation but uphold the right of every person to enjoy that person’s freedom of conscience or religion.”

This is an article that many Christian groups had fought to maintain since its inception in the republican constitution in 1996.

Positives

In Part IV, the draft constitution has provided the opportunity of dual citizenship, an issue which most of our Zambian brothers and sisters in the diaspora have been crying for. The provision clearly states that if a Zambian citizen acquires another nationality, their Zambian citizenship will stil be maintained and cannot be revoked unless the concerned person does so.

Another provision is the Citizenship Board of Zambia which will determine issues to do with nationality. I guess this is the right body which will be determining aspiring candidates’ eligibility to office as happened last year when President Rupiah Banda’s candidature for presidency was questioned on allegations that his father was a foreigner.

Part V of the draft broadens the Bill of Rights and gives various sectors of society rights they need to enjoy such as education, health, sanitation and housing. Of particular interest to me is the inclusion of Economic, Social and Cultural rights. Those who follow Zambian politics will recall that during the existence of the ill fated PF-UPND Pact, the UPND had argued with the PF on these rights and UPND had put them as a benchmark for negotiations towards a single presidential candidate.

Of all the provisions in the draft constitution, those contained in Part VI are dear to my heart. These are articles to do with the electoral system. This part includes some of the most progressive articles which most Zambians have been yearning to have for decades. These include the 50 plus one provision for election of a President, Vice President running mate provision, last Thursday of September as date for General Elections every after five years and proportional representation in parliament. Further, the draft proposes a special vote during general elections for Zambians abroad, defence and security personell and other special people in society like journalists and monitors who are deployed in other areas other than their constituencies were they are registered as voters.

In this same part of the draft, those who lost as MPs in the immediate past elections are not allowed to take office as Ministers or Permanent Secretaries. On the installation of the president elect, more flexibility is given in light of petitions or other problems as opposed to the “within 24 hours” system employed at the moment.

On the executive, Part VII has brought in a tradition that is practiced in countries such as the USA which I see to be very progressive: the appointment of Ministers from outside Parliament. For me this will help the country to have well trained and specialised technocrats to run ministries as opposed to the current system were ministers are deployed irrespective of their credentials and lack of it. In this draft constitution, the Grade 12 requirement for a presidential candidate has been maintained a s well as the provision to remove the immunity of a president if suspected of having abused his/her office.

On electoral petitions, the Constitutional Court has been proposed so that it can hear and judge the submissions. This will help reduce conflict of interest in that the Chief Justice, who used to be the Returning Officer of the general elections, used to receive these electoral petitions when they were filed in the Supreme Court.

Article 88 provides a new concept in Zambian politics: the Political Parties Fund. This is a fund which, in my thinking, will pay a special amount of money to all political parties represented in parliament. However, all parties will be subject to audits on an annual basis on the utilization of party funds. This regulation will also help reduce excess expenditure and mortgaging of the country by those sourcing funds from outside the country.

According to the draft constitution, Ministers will be appointed from outside parliament from among people who are eligible to be elected as MPs and these will number not more than 21. Permanent Secretaries will be appointed from among ruling party MPs and these will only be 11. This will mean that as controlling officers, Permanent Secretaries (MPs) will be under non politicians in the Ministries as Ministers will be chosen from outside Manda Hill.

Parliament itself will have 200 elected MPs plus the Speaker and Deputy Speaker. This will be an increase from the current 150 elected MPs which will mean creation of new constituencies and more expenditure at Manda Hill (the other name for the Zambian Parliament).

Negatives

This first draft constitution contains very good articles but it also has deficiencies. For example, it does not allow an independent candidate to run for President. This is an infringement of rights as many like minded Zambians who would want to aspire for Plot One are not aligned to political parties will not be able to exercise their democratic right. During last year’s General Elections, the European Union and the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa both recommended separately that Zambia should allow independent minded Zambians to aspire for the highest office in the land. 

Secondly, the President will still has excessive powers. These include the appointment of members of the Electoral Commission of Zambia, an issue which many have been describing as unfair. The Technical Committee should have found an independent way of choosing commissioners.

Thirdly, Part VII provides for the President’s immunity and its removal incase of suspected misconduct during the head of state’s tenure of office. However, it does not give a provision for the re-instatement of that immunity after one is tried and the legal process is concluded.

Conclusion

In its current form, the first draft constitution is progressive, it appeals to most people’s aspiration despite a few shortcomings. Therefore, stakeholders who will take part in conventions, should ensure that all progressive clauses are maintained so that a constitution we all want can be enacted into law and will “stand a test of time.