FODEP Says Lack Of Continuous Voter Registration Causing Apathy

FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRATIC PROCESS (FODEP)

INTERIM POST ELECTION STATEMENT ON THE JUST ENDED FIVE (5) PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS IN MKUSHI SOUTH, KASENENGWA, SOLWEZI CENTRAL, ZAMBEZI WEST AND VUBWI CONSTITUENCIES HELD ON 11^TH SEPTEMBER, 2014 ISSUED AT LUSAKA ON 13^TH SEPTEMBER 2014 BY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR MCDONALD CHIPENZI.

MacDonald Chipenzi

Dear Colleagues,

Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP) monitored the just ended parliamentary by-elections in the five (5) constituencies by placing both stationed and roving monitors in selected polling stations.  FODEP is happy to present to you its observations and analysis of the just ended by-elections.

From the onset, FODEP would like to congratulate the ruling PF, UPND and MMD for scooping three (3) and one apiece respectively out of the five parliament by-elections held on 11^th September 2014 and the peaceful, disciplined environment in which the elections were held. We hope the winners will celebrate responsibly while the losers prepare for themselves for 2016.  We want to further commend all political parties, their supporters and all stakeholders in the electoral process for ensuring that the just ended by-elections proceeded on well, peacefully and orderly.

The management and administration of the electoral process by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) also deserves commendation. We will be failing in our duty too if we do not recognize and appreciate the efforts Zambia Police Force put in maintaining law and order throughout the election process. To all, we say well done and further encourage them to continue cherishing peaceful means of conflict resolution in future elections.

FODEP however, bemoans the high levels of voter apathy that characterized the by-elections. To illustrate this, Zambezi West with 10,206 voters only 4924 voters cast their votes representing 48.2% the highest turn out in this round of by-elections. Kasenengwa with 41, 795 had 15,141 voters voting representing 36.2% turnout. Vubwi with 18,084 registered voters had only about 6,693 voters casting their votes representing 37.0% while Solwezi Central with 52,900 voters only had about 10,403 casting their votes representing 19.67% turnout. Mkushi South in Luano District with 12,793 had only about 4,738 voters casting their vote representing 37.04%. As illustrated above, all the constituencies failed to score 50% voter turnout.

This is a trend that we need to contain before it undermines the 2016 tripartite elections. Lack or limited voter education, distances to the polling stations, disconnect between the elected and electors, poor service delivery e.g. government’s failure to purchase maize through Food Reserve Agency (FRA), fear of precedents of violence and intimidation and un-updated voters’ register were cited as reasons for poor voter turnout in some constituencies.

Nonetheless, the results from the five constituencies show very interesting electoral and political trends. The victories and losses scored were as a result of various variables ranging from political party and candidates’ strengths and popularities respectively to urban-rural divide and desire to be close the party in power. More importantly though about these by-elections is the fact that they have “given birth” to three (3) women parliamentarians, increasing the percentage of women in the House. They have sent a strong signal that women can compete and win even competitive electoral contests and defeat their menfolk.

FODEP further noted the regional voting pattern which was conspicuously reflected out of these five by-elections. For instance, UPND was either second to the ruling party or first in areas where it is traditionally strong so is the MMD while PF has performed well in areas where it is also traditionally strong and took advantage of the incumbency in other areas to dilute and usurp opposition strength in their strongholds. 

FODEP’s analysis shows that Solwezi Central and Kasenengwa constituencies both located in an urban set-up were won by the opposition while Mkushi South, Vubwi and Zambezi West which are rural constituencies were scooped by the ruling party. This entails that the rural vote is favoring the party in power while the urban vote which helped the current party assume power is steadily being eroded. 

Another interesting aspect is that the election results were in favour of the ruling party in both constituencies where new districts have been declared such as Vubwi and Mkushi South (Luano District). In Luano District under Mkushi South Constituency voters could also been showing appreciation to the government for killing the Miloni Brothers who terrorized them for years. In Zambezi West, the overstaying of the losing candidate for the UPND could have caused despondence among voters who opted for a change.

It is an undeniable fact that the electoral results show that PF is making inroads in opposition strongholds as evidenced in Vubwi, Kasenengwa, Solwezi, Mkushi and Zambezi West constituencies partly because some of the constituencies have been associated with the ruling parties for some time except that 2011 elections put them on the other side of the coin. The ruling party religious used development projects as a campaign bait such as road construction, communications towers, agriculture marketing, etc. The indiscriminate used of government facilities, resources and the dangling of development projects to constituencies where elections too place by the government ministers who flooded the constituencies with a lot of promises and pledges undermined the freeness and fairness of the vote.

Regardless, the final analysis and cumulatively indicate that the opposition has lost majority in parliament which will now strengthen the “tyranny of the majority syndrome” and the “arrogance of numbers by the ruling party in the House. Resultantly, however, the MMD, which has becoming a political and electoral fishing pond for both PF and UPND, has suffered the greatest loss because all the seats save for one, contested belonged to it but only retained one. The UPND despite grabbing a seat from MMD i.e. Solwezi Central, has lost its own seat to the ruling party -Zambezi West. Therefore, Zambia is back to the pre-2001 elections where parliament was one party dominated. This situation will undermine democratic accountability in Zambia due to its weakened oversight role. The situation may also have a negative implication on the constitution making process as government may arrogantly opt for a constitutional amendment now that it has increased its numbers in parliament.

Further implication of the electoral results is that Zambia’s “electoral weather” is not static but unpredictable and defeats political parties’ argument that their popularity in 2011 remains strong throughout a 5-year electoral cycle in areas they won elections.  As can be observed some political parties are losing grip of their constituencies at very alarming rate while others are gaining ground 3 years since 2011. There is need for serious reflection and packaging of their messages or indeed relooking at the popularity and caliber of the candidates being adopted. Zambians political system should not be blind to the dangers of allowing weakened opposition in parliamentary as it will undermine parliamentary democracy and accountability.

Finally, FODEP is happy with the manner the Commission transparently managed the just ended election process. However, though the legal framework mandates the Commission to announce the results within 48hrs, it is worrying that, in the midst of high levels of apathy, electoral results are taking long to be released like in situation of high voter turn-out. It is for this reason that FODEP supports the introduction of the electronic result transmission system with the hope that it will resolve the issue of result delayed release of elections results and appeals to all stakeholders to embrace the system.

In conclusion, the just ended parliamentary elections were transparent. However, there is need to continue working towards improving the level playing field on media coverage, use of government resources and unaccounted for time by ministers who spend much of their time in the campaigns rather than serving the citizens. Their presence in numbers has exploited the process to their advantage. To this end, FODEP calls for an urgent need for electoral reforms ahead of the 2016 tripartite elections.

MMD: CONVENTION, U-TURN ON PARTY VICE PRESIDENCY & 2016

By Paul Shalala

On Thursday 5 April 2012, MMD National Secretary Richard Kachingwe announced that the former ruling party will go for an “Extra-ordinary National Convention” in all the ten provinces on 25 June 2012. Major Kachingwe further announced that on the agenda will be the election of the new party president, amending the party constitution to include two vice presidents and also make amendments on the operations of party finances.

In layman’s language, holding a “National Convention” in the respective provinces is in essence having provincial conventions because having a National Convention means that provinces will send delegates to one meeting where the MMD will meet on 25^th June but that’s not the case because party members will meet in provinces and not in one place.

Therefore, what MMD will have are provincial conventions and not a National Convention as announced by the retired diplomat who returned to Zambia last year to take up the MMD’s chief executive office at the time he was serving as Zambia’s High Commissioner to Malawi.

On the presidency, the MMD has an opportunity to choose a leader who is expected to unify and move the party forward. At the moment, the party seems disorganized and fatigued with the loss in last year’s general elections. These provincial conventions are therefore an opportunity for the party to put up a united front and make a comeback in 2016 if at all a formidable leader is chosen.

A repeat of what transpired at the 2011 MMD National Convention would damage the party further. MMD members need to bury their differences and embrace each other if the blue party is to live beyond 2016.

Five familiar names are likely to be on the ballot papers during the election to choose the new MMD president who will succeed former president Rupiah Banda who resigned a few weeks ago. These are Felix Mutati (Lunte MP and former Commerce Minister), Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane (Liuwa MP and former Finance Minister), Kabinga Pande (Kasempa MP and former Foreign Affairs Minister), Dr Nevers Mumba (former Vice President and former diplomat) and Moses Muteteka (Chisamba MP and former Local Government Deputy Minister).

All these men are capable of leading this opposition party but the hopes of many party members are that whoever wins, the losers should concede defeat and rally behind the winner. This however is very rare in Africa but MMD once demonstrated this in 2008 when many cabinet ministers fought to become presidential candidates after the demise of then President Levy Mwanawasa and after then acting President Rupiah Banda won the party nomination, all candidates rallied behind him.

On the push to amend the MMD constitution to accommodate two vice presidents, I see this to be a laughable matter because the MMD has made a serious u-turn exactly 12 months after the position was abolished. In April 2011, I covered the MMD extra-ordinary National Convention at Mulungushi Rock of Authority in Kabwe where the party amended the constitution and abolished the position of Vice President due to perceived skirmishes between then MMD Chairman for Elections Mike Mulongoti and then Vice President George Kunda who were both vying for the number two position in the party. The two were perceived to be frontrunners for the party vice presidency and they engaged themselves in a bitter war of words in the media which only ended when Mr Mulongoti was suspended and later expelled from the party and his cabinet portfolio as Works and Supply Minister as well as his nomination as an MP was also revoked by then president Rupiah Banda who was furious at Mulongoti for attacking Kunda in the media.

At that time, senior party officials supported the move to scrap off the number two party position saying the position of Vice president is a liability and it should be abolished.  When delegates were given an opportunity to vote on the amendment, the whole gathering voted unanimously in favour of the amendment and the position was abolished immediately hence the current situation were the party has no Vice President. Therefore, my conclusion is this; the abolishing of the Vice presidency clause last year was not done in good faith because it was done to protect individuals at the expense of the party. It was public knowledge at the time that one perceived preferred candidate was poised to lose hence the need to protect him from an embarrassment. And this push for the re-introduction of the number two position in the party has exposed the MMD’s inconsistency in its leadership. What role is the Vice President going to play today when 12 months ago the same party resolved that the position was a liability?

 In terms of its future, the MMD seems to have a place in people’s heart. Many people still support the party despite its bashing in last year’s polls. However, it risks falling in the same trap UNIP has fallen following its loss in the 1991 elections. The ball is in the MMD’s hands and its actions, messages and movements will be closely scrutinized by Zambian voters between now and 2016.

One of the biggest challenges of whoever will be elected the 4^th MMD president on 25 June will face many challenges. The biggest of them all is the “corruption” tag which many senior party officials have accepted as being a problem. The party needs to work on this if it is to remain a viable party able to challenge the PF in 2016. MMD needs to play its public relations well because Zambians seem to ignore political parties easily once power slips aware. The party also needs a complete overhaul of its senior leadership if it is to appeal to new supporters and voters who are tired of the old faces who seem not to be meeting the needs of the common Zambian.

So the future of MMD will lie in the hands of its new president.

THE BATTLE FOR CHILANGA AND MPULUNGU

The battles for the Chilanga and Mpulungu parliamentary by-elections have now been declared following the filing of nominations on 7th October, 2010.

In Mpulungu, five candidates successfully filed in to replace late area parliamentarian Lameck Chibombamilimo who died in India a month ago.

These were ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD)’s Given Mungomba, Alex Mwazia of the National Restoration Party (NAREP), Freedom Sikazwe of the Patriotic Front (PF), Germaniko Simusokwe of United National Independence Party (UNIP) and Chilobwela Sinyangwe of the newly formed Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD).

Bearing in mind that the ruling MMD will be campaigning to retain ‘their seat’, the party will fight to the last blood to maintain its dominance in terms of the parliamentary seats it holds in the Northern Province.

Currently, the party has eleven of the 21 parliamentary seats in that province.

Most of these seats are in the northern part of the province and they stretch from Kaputa constituency in the west to Isoka East in the East. 

This means that all parliamentary seats bordering with neighbouring Tanzania are all held by the ruling party.

Mpulungu is right in the heart of the MMD ‘strongholds’ as it is sandwiched between MMD constituencies such as Chimbamilonga, Senga Hill and Mbala.

However, the opposition PF is said to have made impressive in-roads in Mpulungu though they expect a stiff fight if they are to turn the tables to their favour.

The PF is likely to use the hounding out of the late area MP from the MMD as one of their campaign issues.

Late Chibombamilimo was expelled from the party after President Rupiah Banda sacked him as Energy Deputy Minister when he accused him of being loyal to the media and not him.

The President vowed to follow him to his constituency in an event of a by-election but that day never came as the late MP died before his appeal against his expulsion could be disposed off by the courts of law.

In Chilanga constituency, four candidates have entered the race to replace former area member of parliament Ng’andu Magande who was expelled from the party a month ago.

These candidates are ruling MMD’s Keith Mukuta, United Party for National Development (UPND)’s Captain Cosmas Moono, Valerie Mukeleni of NAREP and UNIP’s Henry Silumesi.

With the campaigns already under way, all parties have what it takes to upset tables but the main contest (I think) will be between the MMD and the UPND as these seem to be well grounded on the Chilanga terrain.

This is so because the MMD will be riding at the back of incumbency while the UPND has a former area Member of Parliament as its candidate who a number of electorates may still remember. 

The vast Chilanga constituency borders the following constituencies both in Lusaka and Central Provinces: Katuba, Mwembeshi, Kafue, Kanyama and Chongwe.

It is this vastness which defines the distinct nature of voters in this constituency.

From what I can call Chilanga proper are people who are mostly civil servants and the working class, to the western part of the constituency are farmers and villagers.

Among these people are these various issues that may be at the heart of voters in Chilanga: poverty, farming, security and education.

It is this background that will help any of the four candidates to woo voters and win the seat.

In terms of the significance of the seat to the various political parties, if UPND’s Capt Moono wins, he will be getting back the seat he lost in 2006 and it will be his party’s only seat in the province at present.

If MMD’s Mukata carries the day, he will maintain a seat that his party has held tight since 2006. He will also ensure that the party maintains its five ‘rural’ seats in the entire province.

For NAREP’s Mukeleni, this is the first election the party is taking attempting since its inception early this year. She is likely to be the happiest of all looking at the possible historic significance of this seat to her party.

The country’s independence party UNIP is looking at Chilanga as the second seat they may have in the 150 seat Parliament of Zambia aside of Lundazi which is held by Home Affairs Minister Mkondo Lungu. The Chilanga seat will also help the almost forgotten and once ‘almighty’ party to rekindle its old glory.

As the people of Mpulungu and Chilanga cast their ballots on 30^th August 2010 (if at all the date won’t be changed), their task will be to choose an MP who will listen to their cries for development.

Pundits, commentators and political observers like me will keep an eye on every twist and turn on the campaign trail till the end.

For now, I expect the candidates to campaign wisely with issues and not character assassinations, so that voters can vote wisely irrespective of their party affiliations.

By Paul Shalala