By Ray Mwareya
 |
| Middleburg Coal Power Station in South Africa |
Solar energy, mounted on homes of African cities and a gradual switch to
electric cars would be a huge boost in efforts to cut fossil fuel emissions on
the continent.
With poverty and hunger being concerns on the continent, this
may seem like posh, elite topics – but Africa has to plan ahead – and stop
burning fossil fuels.
The evidence is clear. Solar
power and clean cars are ‘gamechangers’ consistently underestimated by big
energy, says Imperial College and Carbon Tracker research.
It is thought by 2035, electric
vehicles could make up 35% of the road transport market worldwide, and
two-thirds by 2050. Africa cannot lag behind in this innovation.
A steep decline in prices of
electric cars and solar panels could halt worldwide growth in demand for oil and
coal by 2020, the new report has suggested. http://bit.ly/2k8lgEY
In African countries like Zambia,
where Solar Aid says, only 29% of the population is connected to the
hydro-electricity grid, solar energy should be a healthy alternative.
A scenario that takes into account
the latest cost reduction projections for the green technologies, and
countries’ pledges to cut emissions, finds that solar power and electric
vehicles are “gamechangers” that could leave fossil fuels stranded.
Polluting fuels could lose 10% of
market share to solar power and clean cars within a decade, the report by the
Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative
found.
A full
change to low-carbon energy is near:
Coal energy and mining, the mainstay
of African economies like Zimbabwe and South Africa, is increasingly becoming a
burden elsewhere.
For example, abroad, a 10% loss of
market share was enough to cause the collapse of the coal mining industry in
the US, while Europe’s five major utilities lost €100bn (£85bn) between 2008
and 2013 because they did not prepare for an 8% increase in renewables, the
report said.
Big energy companies are seriously
underestimating the low-carbon transition by sticking to their “business as
normal” scenarios which expect continued growth of fossil fuels, and could see
their assets “stranded”, the study claims.
In Africa this could bring serious
bankruptcy and financial losses to coal miners and state electricity utilities
if investors and corporations don’t plan for a life when renewable energy will
outstrip coal use.
Emerging technology, such as
printable solar photovoltaics which generate electricity, could bring down
costs and boost take-up even more than currently predicted.
One expert, Luke Sussams, a senior
researcher at Carbon Tracker, says: “Electric vehicles and solar power are gamechangers
that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates.
“Further innovation could make our
scenarios look conservative in five years’ time, in which case the demand
misread by companies will have been amplified even more.”
James Leaton, head of research at
Carbon Tracker, adds: “There are a number of low-carbon technologies about to
achieve critical mass decades before some companies expect.”
A lesson for
Africa: China builds world's biggest solar farm to become green superpower
As for Africa, our so-called
greatest friend, China, is taking the lead while our energy regulators sleep on
the job.
The cost of solar has fallen 85% in
seven years, and the report finds panels could supply 23% of global power
generation by 2040 and 29% by 2050, entirely phasing coal out and leaving
natural gas with just a 1% share.
By 2035, electric vehicles could
make up 35% of the road transport market, and two-thirds by 2050, when it could
displace 25m barrels of oil per day.
Under such a scenario, coal and oil
demand could peak in 2020, while the growth in gas demand could be curtailed.
It could also limit global
temperature rises to between 2.4C and 2.7C above pre-industrial levels, while
more ambitious action by countries than currently pledged, along with falling
costs of solar and electric vehicles, could limit warming to 2.1C to 2.3C.
But the report shows that cutting
carbon from the power sector and road transport may not be enough to achieve
international climate targets, so emissions reductions from other sectors such
as heating buildings and heavy industry will also be needed.
If Africa fails to curb its dire consumption of coal
to power energy factories, I fear drought, climate change and costs will force
the continent to switch to clean solar energy. The time to be proactive is now,
for the continent.
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